Nigeria targets 2.5m barrels daily oil output by 2026 —NUPRC

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) says the country is on course to ramp up crude oil production to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2026.

Gbenga Komolafe, NUPRC chief executive, gave the assurance on Thursday in Abuja at the 4th PENGASSAN and Labour Summit (PEALS 2025), themed “Building a Resilient Oil and Gas Sector in Nigeria: Advancing HSE, ESG, Investment and Incremental Production”.

According to Komolafe, Nigeria’s crude output has climbed from 1.46 million bpd in October 2024 to 1.8 million bpd, with momentum building toward the ambitious 2026 target.

He credited the rise to presidential executive orders issued under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which shortened contracting cycles, reduced investment risks, and accelerated upstream projects.

He highlighted the commission’s strategies, including deepwater exploration, revival of dormant oil fields, and deployment of enhanced recovery techniques. A recent Deepwater Technical Stakeholders’ Workshop, he said, focused on unlocking over 810,000 bpd in potential production.

Komolafe also outlined a cluster development model designed to cut costs, encourage infrastructure sharing, and boost investor confidence.

On sustainability, he reaffirmed NUPRC’s commitment to eliminating routine gas flaring by 2030 and achieving a 60 percent reduction in methane emissions by 2031. He noted that Nigeria’s estimated 210 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves would be central to the country’s energy transition.

Komolafe added that resilience in the oil and gas sector must be a deliberate effort, driven by collaboration between government, industry, and labour.

Also speaking, ExxonMobil’s Managing Director, Jagie Baxi, identified geology, cost, risk, and reward as the four critical factors shaping Nigeria’s oil production outlook.

He warned that despite Nigeria’s vast hydrocarbon endowment, natural decline rates in deepwater operations — estimated at 15 percent annually — remained a significant challenge.

Baxi added that high drilling and operational costs continue to discourage new investments, stressing the need for risk-adjusted incentives to attract capital.

He called for improved collaboration among stakeholders to resolve disputes and revive underperforming oil fields.